Windows media player 11 included in vista wont Stream internet Audio and Videos

Windows Media Player 11 wont stream internet Audio and videos
Article by: Ringo Paul Callado

In the event that your windows media player 11 all of a sudden doesnt play or stream online videos and audio. Do not be alarmed, you are just one of the lucky few to encounter one of the media player bug. Unfortunately for Vista the mms protocol is deprecated and not handled. Also microsoft havent written any update for the IIS dependency conflict that media player services and IIS encounters. The fastest solution for media player streaming errors is to make media player use the port 1755 for streaming and live feed in network settings of media player and dedicate IIS to port 80. Another solution is to reset the Digital Rights Management or DRM of windows media, you can google on how to reset the DRM of windows media manually since you need to purchase from microsoft the tool to reset the DRM which was previously free under KB830114 or you can download it from my online repository
http://www.4shared.com/file/71381236/32dafc4a/DRM_reset.html - This DRM reset tool is a custom tool created by napster, it works for windows media player 8, 9, 10 and 11.

Another step is to rename the folder of windows media player(11.0) under the users folder. In vista you can find the windows media player folder under the root drive\users\username\appdata\local\microsoft. You will need to enable hidden files and hidden system files view on folder options to browse the folder through explorer or you can manually browse it through command.
One final step is to delete 2 files(WMSDKNS.DTD and WMSDKNS.xml) inside the media player folder(11.0).

This troubleshooting will work for media player 10.0 and 11.0 installed on windows xp

For older media player troubleshooting visit - http://zachd.com/pss/pss.html#drm

Disclaimer: Windows media player 11 is a component of windows vista. It cannot be uninstalled and reinstalled automatically through the add/remove programs. Troubleshooting steps are based from experience and research. I will not be held liable for any system crashes or errors resulting from usage of the said steps. Use this tool - www.google.com - if you need additional information.

Technology commentaries

Top Stupid Tech Predictions and Quotes
Saturday, July 12, 2008 - by Dave Altavilla

Every once in a while we like to roll up a list of short-sighted or otherwise ridiculous comments and predictions regarding technology that underscore just how far mankind has come over the years, sometimes in spite of ourselves. There's no question that the possibilities are virtually limitless when it comes to technology but it's always fun to poke a snarky finger at some folks that took a long reach at the future that shouldn't have been made or provided commentary on technology that perhaps they weren't qualified to comment on.

So here goes. What's your favorite? We think Dvorvak took the prize to a certain extent just because he decided to drone on in great detail about something that we now know flew completely in the face of his assessment and ultimately changed the face of computing.

* Everything that can be invented has been invented. - Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

* Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895


* The modern computer hovers between the obsolescent and the nonexistent. - Sydney Brenner in 1927

* I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. - IBM Chairman Thomas Watson, 1943
* Computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps only weigh 1 1/2 tons. - Popular Mechanics, 1949

* I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year. The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

* But what... is it good for?
An engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, commenting on the microchip in 1968.

* Get your feet off my desk, get out of here, you stink, and we're not going to buy your product. Joe Keenan, President of Atari, in 1976 responding to Steve Jobs' offer to sell him rights to the new personal computer he and Steve Wozniak developed.

* There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. - Ken Olson (President of Digital Equipment Corporation) at the Convention of the World Future Society in Boston in 1977

* No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer. 640K ought to be enough for anybody. - Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, in 1981

* I say to you that the VCR is to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone. Jack Valenti, MPAA president, testimony to the House of Representatives, 1982

* The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a 'mouse.' There is no evidence that people want to use these things. What businessman knows about point sizes on typefaces or the value of variable point sizes ? Who out there in the general marketplace even knows what a 'font' is ? The whole concept and attitude towards icons and hieroglyphs is actually counterrevolutionary — it's a language that is hardly 'user friendly'. This type of machine was developed by hardware hackers working out of Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center. It has yet to find popular success. There seems to be some mysterious user resistance to this type of machine.- John C. Dvorak on why the Macintosh would fail, San Francisco Examiner, 1984

* Two years from now, spam will be solved. - Bill Gates, World Economic Forum 2004

* The Internet is a great way to get on the Net. - Bob Dole

* Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former. - Albert Einstein

Right on, Albert. Right on.

The emergence of Modern War

This article came from - http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/gabrmetz/gabr001f.htm3

The Emergence of Modern War
Post-World War II


The debut of nuclear weapons makes it necessary in modern times to clearly distinguish between nuclear and conventional weapons. Only 8 years after Hiroshima, nuclear artillery shells were invented, and 3 years later these shells were small enough to be fired from a 155 millimeter howitzer. By 1970, U.S. and Soviet navies had deployed nuclear torpedoes capable of sinking the largest aircraft carriers with a single shot. Nuclear bombs that in the 1950s, weighed many tons became smaller so that they could be placed under the wings of fighter aircraft. In the 1950s, nuclear reactors were used for the first time to power a strike carrier. Within 10 years nuclear powered missile frigates and cruisers appeared. Nuclear missiles mounted on nuclear powered submarines capable of staying submerged for months were developed and deployed by the 1960s. These missiles grew in range until it was possible to place several Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) -- (warheads) -- on a single missile. By 1985 the Trident II submarine carried 24 missiles each mounting 10 separate warheads of almost half a megaton each. Firing submerged, the Trident's missiles have a range of over 8,000 miles. Land-based strategic missiles are capable of destroying cities from 10,000 miles away in a single blow.

There is a sense, as Napoleon is supposed to have remarked, that quantity conveys a quality all its own. The increase in destructive capacities of conventional weapons have also been enormous, so much so that in any other age these quantitative changes in destructive power would have been regarded as qualitative revolutions in the nature of war. In the modern age, nuclear weapons provide the baseline from which weapons effects are measured. Thus, it does not seem so horrendous, for example, that whole battalions can be exterminated by a single barrage from new artillery weapons when it is possible to exterminate whole cities in the time it takes a flash bulb to burn out. Like most things in modern life, even the destructive effects of war have become relative.

In 1980 the U.S. Army estimated that modern non-nuclear conventional war had become 400 to 700 percent more lethal and intense as it had been in World War II depending, of course, on the battle scenario. The increases in conventional killing power have been enormous, and far greater and more rapid than in any other period in man's history. The artillery firepower of a maneuver battalion, for example, has doubled since World War II while the "casualty effect" of modern artillery guns has increased 400 percent. Range has increased, on average, by 60 percent, and the "zone of destruction" of battalion artillery by 350 percent. Advances in metallurgy and the use of new chemical explosives has increased the explosive power of basic caliber artillery by many times. A single round from an 8-inch gun has the same explosive power as a World War II 250 pound bomb. Modern artillery is lighter, stronger, and more mobile than ever before. Computerized fire direction centers can range guns on target in only 15 seconds compared to 6 minutes required in World War II. The rates of fire of these guns are three times what they used to be. So durable are the new artillery guns that they can fire 500 rounds over a 4 hour period without incurring damage to the barrel. Range has increased to the point where the M-110 gun can fire a 203 millimeter shell 25 miles. The self-propelled gun has a travel range of 220 miles at a speed of 35 miles per hour. Area saturation artillery, in its infancy in World War II, has become very lethal. A single Soviet artillery battalion firing 18 BM-21 rocket launchers can place 35 tons of explosive rockets on a target 17 miles away in just 30 seconds. The American Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) is a totally mobile self-contained artillery system that can place 8,000 M-77 explosive rounds on a target the size of six football fields in less than 45 seconds. Air defense guns have developed to where a single M-163 Vulcan cannon can fire 3,000 rounds of explosive 20-millimeter shot per minute with almost 100 percent accuracy within 2 miles of the gun position. Modern antiaircraft guns command 36 times the airspace around their position as they did in World War II.

Tanks have improved in speed, reliability, and firepower. Modern tanks can make 40 miles per hour over a 300 mile range, or three times that of earlier tanks. A tank equipped with modern gunsights and a cannon stabilization system has a probability of scoring a first round hit of 98 percent, 13 times greater than World War II tanks. Modern battletanks, unlike any earlier variety, can also fire while on the move. Their probability of hitting the target while moving is almost 10 times greater than the probability of a World War II tank firing from a stabilized position. New propellants and ammunition design have increased the lethality of the modern tank. During the Iraqi-U.S. war in 1991, Armor Piercing Discarding Sabot (APDS) rounds moving at 5,467 feet per second pierced 4 feet of sand in bunkered berms and still destroyed enemy tanks. Tank gunsights, lasers connected to computers, can locate a target in the dark, smoke, rain, or snow at 2,000 yards.

The armed combat helicopter has produced a revolution in tank and armor killing power available to the combat commander. These weapons can be configured to kill either troops or tanks, and are truly awesome weapons. The Apache gunship carries 16 Hellfire antitank missiles that need only minimal further direction after they are fired to home in on the target. New sights allow the helicopter to acquire its target from more than 5 miles away. The helicopter has added new mobility and stealth to the battlefield permitting a division commander to strike with troops or antitank weapons 60 miles to his front, four times the range in World War II. The infantry, too, has increased its range, mobility, and firepower with new armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. Infantry can also bring to bear shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles and Jeep and Hummer mounted TOW antitank missiles with devastating results.

The modern battlefield is a lethal place indeed. To place the increased intensity of the modern non-nuclear conventional battlefield in perspective, one need only remember that, in World War II, heavy combat was defined as 2-4 combat pulses a day. Modern combat divisions are configured to routinely deliver 12-14 combat pulses a day and to fight around the clock by night operations. A modern U.S. or Soviet motorized division can deliver three times as much firepower at 10 times the rate as each could in World War II. By these and any other historical (or human) standard, even conventional weapons have in a very real sense become quite unconventional.

We have different personalities

Have you read Father Picardal's blog? - http://amadopicardal.blogspot.com/ - we really have different personalities.. written below is what i commented on his blog...

In this time we see how naive filipinos can be... i agree with your opinion father picardal.. i am not a fan of boxing neither do i want it not to be part of society. But in reality we need heroes but not the likes of pacquiao. We need heroes who can make a change in our country. People who are taking the argument on "The church have done more sins than pacquiao" just have little or no known understanding of reality. What can pacquiao do for this country? When everyone wants to live and work abroad? Where there are hungry people on the streets, rebellion in our own soil, graft and corruption in our government. And for the record boxing or other forms of contact sport are all brutal and can be and will always be compared to gladiatorial combat.How? First of all gladitorial combat is a sport in the roman time with a different set of rules. Second, Well people will never get out of that reality because it is in our genes. We are all genetically born with the innate thirst to kill. That is why we are on top of the food chain. We are not herbivores or carnivores, we are omnivores. Just a little science 101 before people reading this blog gets again on the argument "why compare gladiatorial combat to boxing". We are all entitled to have our own opinion, and Father picardal's opinion is something we can praise not criticize. At least We can say that there are still filipinos who are aware on what is happening in this country. Those are the filipinos that are worth calling heroes. Why call Father Picardal "papansin, stupid, KSP, crab mentality and those stuffs", havent your parents teach you how to show respect, and for God's sake it is a priest that you people are talking to. If Father Picardal's opinion is not aligned with what you see on pacquiao's win. At least show some respect, you can still voice out your criticism in a very constructive way. Havent you guys even thought that all this publicity all falls down to profit and popularity. Ratings and Politics. Call this pathetic patriotism or whatever you may call it. But please read between the lines and show some respect.

The basics of cashflow

THE BASICS OF CASH FLOW
From unknown author

There are those who e-mailed me asking about the basics of cash flow. I'm really sorry that I assumed everybody already understands it. Anyway, by demand … here it goes…

May isang bata… joke lang..

The basic is. What pattern do you see if you will get a P100.00 bill and monitor where and how it is transferred from 1 possessor to the other? How does it flow? The pattern for a typical Pinoy is.

You earn from your work, you spend it on food, gadgets, clothing and other basic needs. Before you reach the next payday, paubos na yung pera mo. But that's ok payday is just a few days ahead and it doesn't matter if I run out of money, I am expecting money again any time soon.

This cycle goes on and on and you make some sidelines or create other ways to earn but it seems that money was never enough. (I am tempted to explain further pero usapan… basics lang).

So you can't leave the job that you have because a week without work would affect the cash flow you have to support your family and needs. As much as you wanted to accept another job, the gap would make you pay less for a couple of days, which makes you a slave to your boss.

At least, you have a job to support your needs.

So to illustrate…Cash is flowing inside your pocket.

Years have gone by doing your monotonous routine.

Question… what if you get fired? Or you were forced to retire because there are new and younger people ready to take your place. What would you do?

As an OFW, Makati Executive, Top Salesman, Engineer, Attorney, Teacher, etc… What if it all ends? The sweet cash that enters your pocket every 15 th and 30th suddenly comes to a halt.

There are two things you can buy with your money… An asset and a liability. To describe each... An asset brings money inside your pocket; a liability takes money out of your pocket. Another way to see, it is that an asset if you buy one, will bring the money you spent for it back to you 2 or 3 folds. A liability, when you buy it will not give your money back at all.

Sa ilocano… idjay ti kwa… djak maawatan… (joke lang po, seryoso na kayo eh…)
Sa madaling salita… kapag asset, maibabalik ang pera , pag liability, goodbye sa pera…
Ang problema kay JUAN DE LA CRUZ, habang may trabaho ipon ng ipon at bili ng bili ng liability!

I have seen OFWs get back to the country with gold chains at kung pwede lang limang shades ang isuot ng sabay-sabay gagawin nya eh… dvd, component, jackets, clothes, inuman, pulutan, party, pabango… hindi na makalakad sa dami ng bitbit…

At s'yempre mga empleyado natin dito sa bansa na lingo-lingo bago cell phone at mags ng kotse.. hindi na nga magkasya ang damit sa aparador, tapos pag umaga sasabihin…. wala na akong maisuot.

Guys, esep-esep… what you bought… will it bring money back to you? I know what you have in mind… you have to enjoy what you worked hard for. That's right, but think of something that will last… think of your future.

I have seen the worst of people who were abogado de kampanilya, executive secretaries of top rank business men, people who worked for big companies, earned a fortune and got a big retirement pay by the millions… Now…. Wala na.

Why? Because of their cash flow… went in… went out.

I need not to mention basketball players, actors, singers, etc… Check what is their career path… next after acting, singing and playing… POLITICS. Kasi, 'yung million na kinita nila, puro liability ang binili.

Going back… all the liability they bought, ibinenta ng mura! I'm wearing a gold chain now, which I got from a seaman… he bought it for P35,000 and sold it for 8,000 to me. Hindi po asset ang alahas! Bakit? Totoo na tumataas ang value n'ya pero kapag gutom ka na, kahit palugi ibebenta mo! (wala bang aaray?) Cell phones… dvd players etc. pati bahay at kotse… that's the cash flow of most OFWs…

The question is … "WHAT IF THE INCOME STOPS?"

Sa Pinoy, ganito: anak… mag-aral kang maigi, at pag tanda namin… ikaw na bahala sa amin ha…. Hindi po ba maling-mali…

You have to establish something today that will take care of your future.

Teka, teka… eh ano ang dapat gawin para hindi mangyari yan?

You must create a source of income that will continually make money flow inside your pocket. Start a business! While you are working as an executive or an OFW, or a professional… START A BUSINESS and MASTER that business till you get out of that company. Para kapag tumigil ang income mo sa kanila… may susuporta pa din sa iyo hanggang pag-tanda mo!

Now don't tell me to invest my money on pensions and plans… NO WAY! Narinig n'yo na siguro yung …. Naku ayaw ko na magbanggit…. 'yung mga nagbayad at hindi nakapag-claim… sila pa ang dinimanda at nag-piyansa!!! HUWAG MO I-ASA ANG PAGTANDA MO SA IBA! GUMAWA KA NG SARILI MONG BALON NG PERA! KAHIT MALIIT PA 'YAN, SARILI MO AT HINDI KA AASA SA IBANG TAO…
Imagine yourself when you reach an older age… (aruy ko,,, baka yung iba sa inyo about that age… tabi tabi po…Ako po sa mga nagtatanong… I'm 37 years old. Naabutan ko pa si Michael Jackson at hinele po ako ng nanay ko sa mga kanta ng hagibis…). You have money that the company gave you as your retirement pay… what will you do?

You can consume the money till your old… eh kung hindi umabot? Masamang damo ka pala… at hindi ka kaagad kinuha ni Lord. Eh pang age 65 lang yung naipon mo na budget.

Or maybe, you can start a business and use the money for capital… Kapatid… 9 out of 10 businesses, FAILED… yung isang magsa-succeed, gagayahin pa ng kapitbahay mo instead na mag-franchise sa 'yo… think! At age 50, you are struggling trying to make a business work! What if it fails?!

Eh ano nga ba ang sagot?

The answer is, stop buying liabilities and instead buy assets now. I don't care if it is a banana-Q store, balot, ice candy or a sari-sari store, etc… start now! Because, your experience here will teach you what to do in the future. It's so hard to struggle in business when you are 60 yrs old.

You have to create a source of income separated from the source of income from your work. That when the time comes that you have to stop working, you will have your own source of money! Create assets, start a business that will be there to support you and your family. I AM NOT TELLING YOU TO QUIT YOUR JOB! I'm telling you to start a business while you're working and stop spending your money on liabilities and start putting them on assets!

Ang pera kapag pinambili mo ng LIABILITY… hindi na babalik… ang ASSET… BABALIK.

Teka… masama ba bumili ng mga magagandang gamit? Hindi! Siguraduhin mo lang na ang pambili mo nun ay galing sa asset mo. The business has to be prioritized! Mawalan ka man ng trabaho, may negosyo kang palalaguin.

If before, nabubuhay ka naman ng iisa sapatos mo, huwag mo baguhin 'yun… dati, nagdyi-jeep ka lang… 'wag ka na munang mag-FX…

Create assets and lessen liabilities. Invest and learn now… mag-negosyo!

Eh anong negosyo? Any, as long as you think it is work and doable! I am still looking for partners for my HOME MASSAGE SERVICE! SPA MAGIC! And my business CAR MAGIC is still franchising… (joke lang … baka sabihin nyo nag pro-promote lang ako eh…But I AM PROUD TO SAY THAT ALL MY BUSINESSES ARE ORIGINAL AND ALL ARE GRAND ASSETS!

I started all my businesses with a very small capital. If I used that money to buy a gadget, new shoes or any liability… baka wala lahat ng negosyo ko at wala na akong makain ngayon.

Again, I hope that this BASIC CASH FLOW article helps…. I wish all of us become financially free!

Apophis risk not increased: science fair judges, world media screw up big time

First the story appeared on April 4 in Germany's 'leading' tabloid ("I have calculated the end of the world ... and NASA says, I'm right"), later in more serious papers ("Nico and the end of the world") - and today, thanks apparently to an AFP story where the writer hadn't found it necessary to check anything, it has taken off around the world. Alas: it's absolute nonsense! The claim is that a 13-year old German schoolboy "discovered" - while working on an entry for a major German science competition - that the 2036 impact probability of asteroid Apophis is not 1:45,000 as the NASA calculation says but actually 100 times higher. Because during the 2029 approach the asteroid would hit a geostationary satellite and be deflected into a much more dangerous orbit. The newspapers also claimed that this boy not only was awarded several prizes for his paper but that NASA had "conceded" that he got it right and they were wrong. We're all doomed, right?Well, here's what NASA's NEO guru Don Yeomans told this blog yesterday: "We have not corresponded with this young man and this story is absurd, a hoax or both. During its 2029 Earth close approach, Apophis will approach the Earth to about 38,900 km, well inside the geosynchronous distance at 42,240 km. However, the asteroid will cross the equatorial belt at a distance of 51,000 km - well outside the geosynchronous distance. Since the uncertainty on Apophis' position during the Earth close approach is about 1500 km, Apophis cannot approach an Earth satellite. Apophis will not cross the moon's orbital plane at the Moon's orbital distance so it cannot approach the moon either." And here's how one of the German scientists mentioned in the first story, celestial dynamics expert Frank Spahn from Potsdam University, explained events to this blog today: "I indeed had contact with this engaged boy - he asked me which perturbations/forces determine Apophis' orbit and especially during the close flybys. You know that I deal with kinetic theory & celestial mech. in the context of planetary rings, preplanetary disks etc. I explained him the 3 and 4 body problem and gravitational interactions in general. He did not tell me about his idea to consider a collision. This was in January or February. The next time when I heard of him was in in the boulevard journaillie "Bild" - together with my name.I asked him to meet me (last Friday), he told me about the asteroid - satellite collision thing (after I asked him how he calculated and "corrected" the NASA result). Then I showed him at the black board about the extremely small collision probability (frequency) with such an object. Seeing the arising problems I attended the set of [German TV news station] N24 and explained the leading responsible person that I appreciate the engagement of that young student but simultaneously I express that one has to mention the low probability of such a collision plus expressing that this is not a correction to NASA. The filming session went on and I had to leave for another meeting. The I saw yesterday that nonsens in TV - and I am shocked. By the way - I haven't seen that paper and the work sofar, Nico told me that his computer disk had a virus so that only hard copies are available which are with the referees of the contest at the moment. So - I do not know how he could have won the competition, obviously the referees were no experts."Nor were the writers for the German newspapers or AFP - none of which bothered to ask NASA directly or just consult the impact risk page for Apophis. This is clearly the most used and abused Near Earth Asteroid in many years: Still called 2004 MN4 it briefly reached a record high impact probability for 2029 in late 2004 which quickly evaporated (as always in these cases - so far) when radar data nailed down its orbit in early 2005. And in the following months the remaining impact probability for 2036 also continued to dwindle, to the present 1 in 45,000: You can follow the real science - and the triumph of radar astrometry - on this dedicated NASA website. Which certain Jugend Forscht judges and journalists should have consulted, too ...

Apophis.. How True?

Friday the 13th of April 2029 could be a very unlucky day for planet Earth. At 4:36 am Greenwich Mean Time, a 25-million-ton, 820-ft.-wide asteroid called 99942 Apophis will slice across the orbit of the moon and barrel toward Earth at more than 28,000 mph. The huge pockmarked rock, two-thirds the size of Devils Tower in Wyoming, will pack the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs -- enough to wipe out a small country or kick up an 800-ft. tsunami.On this day, however, Apophis is not expected to live up to its namesake, the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction. Scientists are 99.7 percent certain it will pass at a distance of 18,800 to 20,800 miles. In astronomical terms, 20,000 miles is a mere stone's throw, shorter than a round-trip flight from New York to Melbourne, Australia, and well inside the orbits of Earth's many geosynchronous communications satellites. For a couple of hours after dusk, people in Europe, Africa and western Asia will see what looks like a medium-bright star creeping westward through the constellation of Cancer, making Apophis the first asteroid in human history to be clearly visible to the naked eye. And then it will be gone, having vanished into the dark vastness of space. We will have dodged a cosmic bullet.Maybe. Scientists calculate that if Apophis passes at a distance of exactly 18,893 miles, it will go through a "gravitational keyhole." This small region in space -- only about a half mile wide, or twice the diameter of the asteroid itself -- is where Earth's gravity would perturb Apophis in just the wrong way, causing it to enter an orbit seven-sixths as long as Earth's. In other words, the planet will be squarely in the crosshairs for a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact precisely seven years later, on April 13, 2036.Radar and optical tracking during Apophis's fly-by last summer put the odds of the asteroid passing through the keyhole at about 45,000-to-1. "People have a hard time reasoning with low-probability/high-consequence risks," says Michael DeKay of the Center for Risk Perception and Communication at Carnegie Mellon University. "Some people say, 'Why bother, it's not really going to happen.' But others say that when the potential consequences are so serious, even a tiny risk is unacceptable."Former astronaut Rusty Schweickart, now 71, knows a thing or two about objects flying through space, having been one himself during a spacewalk on the Apollo 9 mission in 1969. Through the B612 Foundation, which he co-founded in 2001, Schweickart has been prodding NASA to do something about Apophis -- and soon. "We need to act," he says. "If we blow this, it'll be criminal."If the dice do land the wrong way in 2029, Apophis would have to be deflected by some 5000 miles to miss the Earth in 2036. Hollywood notwithstanding, that's a feat far beyond any current human technology. The fanciful mission in the 1998 movie Armageddon -- to drill a hole more than 800 ft. into an asteroid and detonate a nuclear bomb inside it -- is about as technically feasible as time travel. In reality, after April 13, 2029, there would be little we could do but plot the precise impact point and start evacuating people.According to projections, an Apophis impact would occur somewhere along a curving 30-mile-wide swath stretching across Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and on into the Atlantic. Managua, Nicaragua; San José, Costa Rica; and Caracas, Venezuela, all would be in line for near-direct hits and complete destruction. The most likely target, though, is several thousand miles off the West Coast, where Apophis would create a 5-mile-wide, 9000-ft.-deep "crater" in the water. The collapse of that transient water crater would trigger tsunamis that would hammer California with an hour-long fusillade of 50-ft. waves. BUT DON'T EVACUATE just yet. Although we can't force Apophis to miss the Earth after 2029, we have the technology to nudge it slightly off course well before then, causing it to miss the keyhole in the first place. According to NASA, a simple 1-ton "kinetic energy impactor" spacecraft thumping into Apophis at 5000 mph would do the trick. We already have a template for such a mission: NASA's Deep Impact space probe -- named after another 1998 cosmic-collision movie -- slammed into the comet Tempel 1 in 2005 to gather data about the composition of its surface. Alternatively, an ion-drive-powered "gravity tractor" spacecraft could hover above Apophis and use its own tiny gravity to gently pull the asteroid off course.In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA administrator Michael Griffin to start planning a mission to land a radio transponder on Apophis. Tracking data from the device would almost certainly confirm that the asteroid won't hit the keyhole in 2029, allowing everyone on Earth to breathe a collective sigh of relief. But if it didn't, there still would be time to design and launch a deflection mission, a project that Schweickart estimates could take as long as 12 years. It would need to be completed by about 2026 to allow enough time for a spacecraft's tiny nudge to take effect.NASA, however, is taking a wait-and-see attitude. An analysis by Steven Chesley of the Near Earth Object program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif., concludes that we can safely sit tight until 2013. That's when Apophis swings by Earth in prime position for tracking by the 1000-ft.-dia. radio telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico. This data could also rule out a keyhole hit in 2029. But if it doesn't, the transponder mission and, if necessary, a last-resort deflection mission could still be launched in time, according to Chesley. "There's no rush right now," he says. "But if it's still serious by 2014, we need to start designing real missions."IN 1998, CONGRESS mandated NASA to find and track near-Earth asteroids at least 1 kilometer in diameter. The resulting Spaceguard Survey has detected, at last count, about 75 percent of the 1100 estimated to be out there. (Although Apophis was nearly 2500 ft. short of the size criterion, it was found serendipitously during the search process.) Thankfully, none of the giants so far discovered is a threat to Earth. "But any one of those couple of hundred we haven't found yet could be headed toward us right now," says former astronaut Tom Jones, an asteroid-search consultant for NASA and a Popular Mechanics editorial adviser. The space agency plans to expand Spaceguard to include asteroids down to 140 meters in diameter -- less than half the size of Apophis, but still big enough to do serious damage. It has already detected more than 4000 of these; NASA estimates approximately 100,000 exist.Predicting asteroid orbits can be a messy business, as the history of tracking Apophis in its 323-day orbit demonstrates. Astronomers at Arizona's Kitt Peak National Observatory discovered the asteroid in June 2004. It was six months before additional sightings -- many made by amateurs using backyard telescopes -- triggered alarm bells at JPL, home to the Sentry asteroid-impact monitoring system, a computer that predicts the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations. Sentry's impact predictions then grew more ominous by the day. On Dec. 27, 2004, the odds of a 2029 impact reached 2.7 percent -- a figure that stirred great excitement in the small world of asteroid chasers. Apophis vaulted to an unprecedented rating of 4 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a 10-step, color-coded index of asteroid and comet threat levels.But the commotion was short-lived. When previously overlooked observations were fed into the computer, it spit out reassuring news: Apophis would not hit the Earth in 2029 after all, though it wouldn't miss by much. Oh, and there was one other thing: that troublesome keyhole.The small size of the gravitational keyhole -- just 2000 ft. in diameter -- is both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, it wouldn't take much to nudge Apophis outside it. Calculations suggest that if we change Apophis's velocity by a mere 0.0001 mph--about 31 in. per day--in three years its orbit would be deflected by more than a mile, a piddling amount, but enough to miss the keyhole. That's easily within the capabilities of a gravity tractor or kinetic energy impactor. On the other hand, with a target so minuscule, predicting precisely where Apophis will pass in relation to the keyhole becomes, well, a hit-or-miss proposition. Current orbit projections for 2029 have a margin of error -- orbital scientists call it the error ellipse -- of about 2000 miles. As data rolls in, the error ellipse will shrink considerably. But if the keyhole stubbornly stays within it, NASA may have to reduce the ellipse to a mile or less before it knows for sure whether Apophis will hit the bull's-eye. Otherwise, a mission risks inadvertently nudging Apophis into the keyhole instead of away from it.Can we predict Apophis's orbit to the submile level far enough in advance to launch a deflection mission? That level of forecasting accuracy would require, in addition to a transponder, a vastly more complex orbital calculation model than the one used today. It would have to include calculations for such minute effects as solar radiation, relativity and the gravitational pulls of small nearby asteroids, none of which are fully accounted for in the current model.And then there's the wild card of asteroid orbital calculations: the Yarkovsky Effect. This small but steady force occurs when an asteroid radiates more heat from one side than the other. As an asteroid rotates away from the sun, the heat that has accumulated on its surface is shed into space, giving it a slight push in the other direction. An asteroid called 6489 Golevka, twice the size of Apophis, has been pushed about 10 miles off course by this effect in the past 15 years. How Apophis will be influenced over the next 23 years is anybody's guess. At the moment we have no clue about its spin direction or axis, or even its shape -- all necessary parameters for estimating the effect.IF APOPHIS IS INDEED headed for the gravitational keyhole, ground observations won't be able to confirm it until at least 2021. By that time, it may be too late to do anything about it. Considering what's at stake -- Chesley estimates that an Apophis-size asteroid impact would cost $400 billion in infrastructure damage alone -- it seems prudent to start taking steps to deal with Apophis long before we know whether those steps will eventually prove necessary. When do we start? Or, alternatively, at what point do we just cross our fingers and hope it misses? When the odds are 10-to-1 against it? A thousand-to-1? A million?When NASA does discover a potentially threatening asteroid like Apophis, it has no mandate to decide whether, when or how to take action. "We're not in the mitigation business," Chesley says. A workshop to discuss general asteroid-defense options last June was NASA's first official baby step in that direction.If NASA eventually does get the nod -- and more important, the budget -- from Congress, the obvious first move would be a reconnaissance mission to Apophis. Schweickart estimates that "even gold-plated at JPL," a transponder-equipped gravity tractor could be launched for $250 million. Ironically, that's almost precisely the cost of making the cosmic-collision movies Armageddon and Deep Impact. If Hollywood can pony up a quarter of a billion in the name of defending our planet, why can't Congress?